Thursday, May 23, 2013

ZAP! #121: Figuring the Odds

ZAP! #121

     If you recall, the May 13, 2013 CCR report reflected the candidates for the upcoming city council runoff election.  The report also requested that readers submit who they would vote for, or would like to see win the runoff election.

     Reviewing all the anonymous responses received, it appears that CCR responders are almost as apathetic as voters in Irving.  While the response rate was actually dismal compared to the entire reader base, the results did reflect a striking trend.  If staff of the CCR knew more about statistics, Bell shaped curves and probability, then we might conclude that the family farm maybe shouldn’t be bet on the election outcome as reflected by the data collected in this instance.  But then, it’s gambling and the payoff odds would be outstanding if one did bet and won on these numbers.  We’ll save our bucks for playing Hold’em, thank you!

     That being said, it does appear that the runoff results do point to what is generally accepted for most runoff elections: the top vote candidate (Danish or Meagher) has generally maxed-out the number of votes they could receive in a runoff and the second place candidate (Byers or Stewart) has a distinct advantage in being able to capture the votes of any other candidates that were on the general election ballot.  The election is there to be lost by the top vote getter from the general election.

     With these factors in mind, here are the officially unofficial numbers compiled from CCR reader responses at May 23, 2013:

Danish  29% vs. 71%  Byers

                                          Meagher  27% vs.  73% Stewart

     While the campaigning for the runoff election has been rather quiet, individuals have reported that they have seen little activity from the general election front runners...which is not surprising.  Outward appearances seem to be weighted to the general election second place candidates for actively energizing their supporters and attempting to garner additional general election voters.

     As a reminder, early voting in the runoff election is: June 3rd to June 11th.  Election day is: June 15th.  It should be noted that early voting will be available only at the Irving city hall.

………………………….Mark Holbrook

NOTE:  Staff of the CCR has just been notified by the Irving City Secretary that due to there being a runoff election (not known until today and at the time ZAP! #121 was published) for the Carrollton/Farmers Branch school district, Irving voters will also be able to vote at the Valley Ranch library.  This will allow another North/South voting appearance in the city!